1. The Purpose of the Study

  As Korea transitions from the era of factory chimneys and industrialization to an advanced industrial society based on cutting-edge technology, the patterns of crime in Korea are also undergoing changes. The purpose of this study is to conduct an exploratory research on the changes in the patterns of crime in Korea, which may not be well-known despite seeming familiar to us.

2. Methodology

  In relation to this, the study introduced the results of prior research conducted in 2009 that predicted a decline in major crimes in official crime statistics, despite the continuous increase in official crimes observed since the 1990s. Furthermore, an examination assessed how accurate these predictions were as of the current decade. To validate the predictions from previous research, nine crime types (homicide, robbery, arson, violent crime, burglary, sexual assault, fraud, embezzlement, and bribery) were selected from official crime statistics for a thorough analysis of their trends.

  Through this process, the study investigated which crimes exhibited trends consistent with predictions and which deviated from these predictions. Following this, a discussion was conducted on the characteristics of each crime category. This exploration aimed to deepen our understanding of whether various societal changes in Korea are leading to a reduction in the incidence of specific crime categories while simultaneously increasing the occurrence of other crime categories. Additionally, the study explored whether certain intrinsic factors are causing a delay in the overall downward trend. To support these inquiries, the study tried to relate prent changes in Korean society to the current patterns of crime, considering significant factors associated with crime phenomena.

  Furthermore, in order to examine the societal changes in Korea and the corresponding shifts in crime patterns in a more multifaceted manner, a big data analysis of media coverage was conducted. The research scope and focus were limited to news articles from 1960 to 2022, using 'crime' as the keyword. Among the websites of media companies (Chosun, Joongang) that provide full articles from before the 1990s, 'Chosun Ilbo' was selected as the data collection channel for analysis, as it allows data retri from 1960 onwards.

3. Main Findings

  ① Crime Categories Consistent with the Predictions of Previous Research 

  After the period when the directions of official crime statistics and crime victimization survey trends were opposite, it can be observed that the trends in homicide, robbery, arson, violent crime, and burglary have been decreasing not only in crime victimization surveys but also in official crime statistics since the mid-2000s. This confirms that the actual decrease trend has been maintained consistently for almost a decade in these crime categories.

  ② Crime Categories Contrary to the Predictions of Previous Research 

  In the categories of sexual assault, fraud, embezzlement, and bribery, trends that are difficult to characterize as a decrease in official statistics have emerged. For fraud and embezzlement, there appears to be a sustained upward trend, while sexual assault, although showing some recent moderation in the increase, does not exhibit a clear reversal towards a decrease. In the case of bribery, it might be challenging to assert an increasing trend, but it is certainly not indicative of a decreasing trend.

  ③ Interpretation of Recent Major Crime Patterns in Korea 

  The perspective of this study assumes that such phenomena are not merely coincidental but rather reflect the changing dynamics of our society. The continuous decrease in the youth population alongside a rapid increase in the elderly population, the proliferation of surveillance systems such as CCTV and mobile phone cameras, changes in residential patterns making burglary more difficult (such as the increase in apartment living and urban redevelopment), and the digitization of transactions reducing the use of cash, which was a major target in past criminal activities, can be considered fundamental factors contributing to the reduction in major street crimes, particularly theft and robbery. 

  Additionally, the increasing social involvement of women, sharing the benefits of economic development, the rise in average income, and the increase in average education levels are also presumed to be significant factors exerting a considerable influence on the changing patterns of crime in our society.

  One of the increasingly significant factors among the contributors to the decrease in crime may be various forms of inhibitory factors. The costs associated with committing crimes have consistently risen over time. However, the presence of fundamental motivations for committing crimes or, in other words, deficiencies significant enough to motivate individuals to engage in criminal activities has not significantly diminished. This has intensified people's fear and concern about crime. The declining proportion of energetic young individuals and the increasing proportion of physically vulnerable elderly individuals inherently reduce the likelihood of using force to commit crimes.

  Assuming that, despite the decreasing feasibility of physically demanding crimes, the desire for crime itself has not diminished, there is a possibility that alternative forms of crime, which do not require or involve physical force as much, may be on the rise. These hypothetical assumptions to some extent explain the contents analyzed in this study.

  ④ Exploring Changes in Crime Patterns Through Analysis of Crime-Related Media Coverage

  While the discourse analysis of media did not directly explore the causes of changes in crime patterns, it did demonstrate, at the very least, a shift in the severity of traditional crimes. As the 1980s unfolded, there was an initial emergence of interest in white-collar crimes such as financial crimes. The 1990s marked the first significant appearance of drug-related crimes, and it was a time when awareness of crimes against women began to rise. The trends in the 2000s showed that media coverage of drugs and sexual assault (sex crimes) began to surpass mentions of traditional crimes.

  Moreover, as societal interest in crimes against women and vulnerable populations increased, the discourse expanded to include discussions about victims and victimization. After 2010, the discourse solidified these trends further, highlighting a period where crimes against women surged, societal attention heightened, and the importance of economic crimes such as embezzlement, bribery, and fraud gained prominence. On one hand, factors contributing to a decrease in crime appeared to increase; on the other hand, the passage of time seemed to be marked by an elevated fear and vigilance regarding crime. 

  ⑤ Comprehensive Discussion

  Whether non-physical crimes such as fraud will continue to increase in the long term or experience a relatively temporary surge is still uncertain. The basis for such thoughts lies in the idea that crimes like fraud are not simply increasing as alternative crimes due to the rising costs associated with physical crimes. This can be speculated by examining the changing age groups of those committing major crimes. If it is assumed that individuals committing non-physical alternative crimes were previously involved in physical crimes but are now opting for crimes that require less physical strength due to physical limitations, the increasing trend may not be sustainable in the long run.

  The key determinant in this scenario is whether the younger generation has criminal tendencies. If the younger generation has criminal tendencies but often opts for alternative crimes like fraud due to the cost burden associated with physical crimes, the current trend of increasing fraud may continue for a more extended period. On the contrary, if the current surge in fraud is primarily carried out by individuals who were once involved in physical crimes during their prime, there is an expectation that fraud will also start to decrease not too far into the future. Of course, these two factors may be intertwined to some extent.

4. Discussion on the Direction of Changes in Crime Patterns

  The likelihood of alternative crime choices is not solely a result of changes in population composition. In 1977, 50.4% of criminal offenders had an elementary school education or lower. In 2021, this proportion is only 5%. This suggests that the impact extends beyond the mere increase or decrease in crime. Even if we were to consider the same amount of crime, the crimes committed today are carried out by individuals with higher education, closer to the elderly, and with greater participation from female offenders. For instance, even if we were to compare a single robbery incident, the nature of a robbery in 1977 and 2021 could qualitatively differ. A group of robust young men in their late teens and early twenties committing a robbery with knives and clubs is considered one case, and a female robber attempting a robbery with a portable gas gun but failing to complete it is also considered one case. This distinction is present in the statistics. This study's perspective suggests that the changes in crime patterns in Korea are not limited to quantitative aspects alone.

5. Policy Implications

  This study is exploratory in nature and will not explicitly present policy implications. However, the observed trends in recent changes in crime patterns in Korea, as highlighted in this study, imply a significant need for changes in our criminal justice system, which has primarily focused on responding to street crimes.